Crime, Transitory Poverty, and Isolation: Evidence from Madagascar∗

This paper investigates the relationship between poverty and crime. Following a disputed presidential election, fuel supply to the highlands of Madagascar was severely curtailed in early 2002, resulting in a massive increase in poverty and transport costs. Using original survey data collected in June 2002 at the height of the crisis, we Þnd that crop theft increases with transitory poverty. We also Þnd that an increase in law enforcement personnel locally reduces cattle theft which, in Madagascar, is a form of organized crime. Theft thus appears to be used by some of the rural poor as a risk coping strategy. Increased transport costs led to a rise in cattle and crop theft, conÞrming earlier Þndings that, in Madagascar, geographical isolation is associated with certain forms of crime. JEL classiÞcation code: K14, I39 ∗We thank Eliane Ralison and Lalaina Randrianarison for their assistance in collecting and cleaning the data. Funding for this project was provided by USAID and Cornell University. †Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Manor Road, Oxford OX1 3UQ. Email: . Fax: +44(0)1865-281447. Tel: +44(0)1865-281446. ‡Cornell Food and Nutrition Policy Program, Cornell University, Ithaca NY. Email: